zt美刊评全球十大最危险国家和地区 中国排第二(图)

 美国《外交政策》杂志网站8月7日发表了美国学者David Rothkopf的文章,题目是 The world's 10 most
dangerous countries(全世界十大最危险国家和地区),他的观点在美国和西方很有代表性,值得中国读者参考研究。在这份名单中,美国是排在第一位最具危险性的国家,David

10. 委内瑞拉(Venezuela)

  Ok, Chávez won't start any world wars. But think of his disruptive
reach around the hemisphere, his support for the FARC, and his
cultivation of ties to Russia, China and the Middle East and its clear
this is the one guy who is most likely to disrupt lives in Latin
America for the foreseeable future.


  9. 伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯 (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) (并列)

  The final chapter has not been written in Iraq. Saddam may not have
posed the threat Bush ascribed to him, but the fragmentation of this
country (particularly in Kurdistan) could be massively destabilizing
in the region and create real problems with Turkey, Iran, and Russia.
The Saudis support terror, their succession picture is murky, they are
likely to be one of the first to respond to Iranian nukes with a
program of their own, and they pull key levers in OPEC. Hard not to
include them, too.


  8. 欧盟 The European Union

  Europe should be a force for stability in the world. But an EU
without an effective foreign policy mechanism, without the ability to
shoulder its share of the military burden associated with keeping the
world safe, with a faltering Euro and with too many new members is a
big void where the world needs strength. Sometimes the greatest threat
comes from those who could take action to preserve stability but who
do not.


  7. 尼日利亚和刚果(金) ( Nigeria and Congo )(并列)

  Nigeria is the biggest country on a continent that is increasingly
important to the world for oil and other resources. It is a major
player in the global energy scene. And it faces multiple threats both
internally and from a truly scary neighborhood. Congo is the site of
the world's most deadly conflict of the past decade and both a
metaphor and hub for the kind of regional fracturing that make
instability in Africa one of the things most worrying to U.S. and
European military commanders.


  6. 以色列和巴勒斯坦 (Israel and Palestine)(并列)

  This is a dangerous place, for sure. Hostile or ill-considered moves
by either party can trigger regional instability that would impact
global energy markets and draw the attention of every major world
power. The only reason this festering wound is ranked so low: everyone
is so accustomed to it that it is more likely than not to have very
narrow consequences even if it heats to a boil for extended periods.


  5. 伊朗(Iran)

  Iran could be an important regional force for stability. But for the
near term that looks pretty unlikely. Meanwhile, if the Iranian
nuclear program triggers a regional arms race that may not mean
state-on-state thermonuclear disaster (deterrence probably still works
for most states) but it vastly increases the likelihood that some nuke
ends up in the hands of some non-state (or allegedly non-state) actor.


  4. 俄罗斯(Russia)

  I rank them behind Pakistan because the odds are better that their
desire to be part of the world system ultimately suppresses the
country's more dangerous impulses. And because they are likely for the
near term to be more dangerous as a diplomatic and political disruptor
and as a regional mischief maker than as a direct military threat to
anyone outside their immediate neighborhood. If I'm in that
neighborhood though, I'm uncomfortable. And on top of all that, the
most recent picture of a bare-chested Putin on horseback has me


  3. 巴基斯坦 Pakistan

  Pakistan is just barely a functioning state in the pieces of the
country where the government has some control. As for the rest of the
place? There are pieces that never bought into the idea of the
Pakistani nation. So take that, add nukes, add the impact on India and
Afghanistan, add al Qaeda and the Taliban, add the country as a petri
dish and a symbol for radical Islam and it's still the place with the
biggest potential to blow up into something very messy for the world
in the next several years.


  2. 中国 (China)

  I do not believe China is a military threat to the U.S. or to anyone
now or at any time in the near future. Rather they are on top of this
list for the same reason that the number one country is: the most
dangerous countries are the ones with the most power. They flex their
muscle ... economic, political, or military... and they have the
biggest impact. Or, as in the case of China, if they don't ... if they
remain the reluctant great power ... and don't assume a role in the
international system proportionate to their power, it will throw the
system out of balance. (For example: if Iran's nuclear program is a
threat and China could make a difference in containing it but doesn't
... they become a contributor to the threat.)


  1. 美国 The United States

  I generally believe the U.S. is a force for good in the world and I
am inclined to believe that is the objective of the current
administration. But there is no denying that the one country who has
most aggressively reached out to touch the world militarily in the
past decade is the Untied States. Further, and more importantly,
following the logic in the EU and China mentions above...no one has
more power than the United States. That means no one can do more
damage with a mistake or even with inaction. Also: as in the case of
China and the EU, our economic missteps punish the planet and there is
very little evidence to suggest we've taken the steps we need to avoid
another meltdown of the 2008-2009 variety. Ask yourself: What has
harmed more people on the planet, terrorist brutality or Wall Street


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